【期刊論文】李大中教授兼所長發表期刊論文〈第2次トランプ政権における人事、対外政策、米中関係の行方〉

論文題目: 第2次トランプ政権における人事、対外政策、米中関係の行方

發表學年度: 114-2學年

論文刊登地: 《問題と研究》55(1) , pp. 41-80

發表單位: 國立政治大學國際關係研究中心

文章中英文摘要:

本文旨在檢視川普第二任政府的人事布局、對外政策及美中關係的未來走向。繼緒論之後，第二章分析川普政府在白宮、國家安全及經濟貿易領域的團隊組成，並探討其人事安排的特徵與意圖。第三章聚焦於美國對外政策的基本方向與具體行動，論述川普第二任政府「美國優先」（America First）政策的再度回歸，以及經濟貿易、關稅與科學技術領域的重要性。第四章概述川普第一任政府、拜登政府及川普第二任政府時期美中關係的演變，並深入探討美中之間長期的戰略競爭、關稅、貿易談判及臺灣問題，最後提出結論。

本文認為，川普第二任政府在組建國家安全及經濟貿易團隊時，將對總統的忠誠度置於首要考量。相較於川普第一任政府，川普第二任政府的整體對外政策更加鮮明地展現重商主義與「美國優先」的政策取向，並更加重視將關稅作為談判工具。從最大化美國自身國家利益的角度而言，美國當前的對中政策，預期仍將持續以經濟貿易及關稅談判的成果作為主要政策重心。

This paper examines the personnel appointments, foreign policy, and future trajectory of US–China relations under the second Trump administration. Following the introduction, Chapter Two analyses the composition of the Trump administration’s teams responsible for the White House, national security, and economic and trade affairs, exploring the characteristics and intentions underlying these personnel appointments. Chapter Three focuses on the fundamental direction and specific actions of US foreign policy, discussing the resurgence of the ‘America First’ approach under the second Trump administration and the importance of economic and trade affairs, tariffs, and science and technology. Chapter Four provides an overview of the evolution of US–China relations during the first Trump administration, the Biden administration, and the second Trump administration. Particular attention is devoted to the long-term strategic competition between the United States and China, tariffs, trade negotiations, and the Taiwan issue, before the paper concludes with its principal findings.

This paper argues that, under the second Trump administration, the national security and economic and trade teams have been assembled with loyalty to the President as the foremost consideration. Compared with the first Trump administration, mercantilism and the ‘America First’ approach have become more pronounced in the overall direction of US foreign policy, accompanied by an increased emphasis on employing tariffs as a negotiating instrument. From the perspective of maximising US national interests, the administration’s immediate policy towards China is likely to remain primarily focused on achieving results in economic and trade negotiations, particularly those concerning tariffs.